Best Picture
Warhorse / The Artist / The Descendants / Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close / Hugo / Midnight In Paris / The Help / Moneyball / The Tree of Life
Like so many Best Picture years gone by, there is only one winner. The Artist, 85 years after the birth of the talkies, would be a very deserving winner and a swift two-fingers at David Cameron who thinks British cinema should all be mainstream (not that The Artist is British...but...you know). A black and white silent love story should have merely been a curiosity but it's pure magic and as a result is not simply a matter of "don't believe the hype".
I'm still not a fan of the large amount of films which now can be nominated. 5 would certainly have been enough this year as the inclusions of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and the distinctly average Midnight In Paris were completely unnecessary. And if you're going to have 9 films nominated why on earth isn't one of them We Need To Talk About Kevin?
Best Director
Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris) / Martin Scorsese (Hugo) / Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist) / Terrence Malick (Tree of Life) / Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
With just a handful of films in his 40 year career, Terrence Malick cannot be accused of chasing the awards. Though Michael Hazanavicius, Alexander Payne and Scorsese are all very strong contenders in this pretty hot category I have a feeling this could be Malick's year for a film which I didn't find remotely pretentious. Maybe that says more about me than the film...
As for snubs, not including Lynne Ramsey for We Need To Talk About Kevin seems a massive oversight. And where is Steve McQueen, who gave a minimalist directing masterclass in Shame? Woody Allen certainly didn't need yet another nomination when his effort this year was not exactly Annie Hall.
Kenneth Branagh (My Week With Marilyn) / Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) / Jonah Hill (Moneyball) / Christopher Plummer (Beginners) / Nick Nolte (Warrior)
He's probably actually the least likely to win in this strong category but Jonah Hill's performance in Moneyball was so strong and such a break-out that I'd love to see him win. I'm essentially taking a bullet when the excellent Christopher Plummer will probably win.
Best Supporting Actress
Bernice Bejo (The Artist) / Jessica Chastain (The Help) / Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) / Janet Mcteer (Albert Nobbs) / Octavia Spencer (The Help)
I was dead chuffed to see Melissa McCarthy get a nod for her brilliant performance in Bridesmaids. It's just a shame that in a film with such a strong ensemble only one of those ladies got nominated. The winner has to be Octavia Spencer. One question though...in The Help, a film full of excellent performances, where is Bryce Dallas Howard's nomination? For me she was the strongest of a very strong bunch.
Best Actor
Brad Pitt (Moneyball) / George Clooney (The Descendants) / Demien Bichir (A Better Life) / Jean Dujardin (The Artist) / Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
This is probably a one horse race but Jean Dujardin could provide an 'upset' (if you can call it that). Just as last year was finally Firth's year, this year is finally Clooney's.
But where is Michael Fassbender? For my money he would have given Clooney a real run for his money for his performance in Shame.
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) / Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) / Rooney Mara (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo) / Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn) / Viola Davies (The Help)
Yawn, it's Meryl's year. This category verges on the ridiculous. All the women nominated give fine performances but none as fine as Carey Mulligan in Shame, Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin and Olivia Colman in Tyrannosaur (who gave the best performance of 2011 and probably of the next 5 years too).
Best Original Screenplay
The Artist / Bridesmaids / Margin Call / Midnight In Paris / A Separation
I am yet to see A Separation so maybe I should just keep my big mouth shut but no-one reads this so I'll say what I like. The Artist would be a worthy winner but Bridesmaids is my favourite screenplay here. If Midnight In Paris, a film which points out Ernest Hemingway by saying, "oh look, it's Ernest Hemingway", wins I'll kick a door.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants / Hugo / The Ides of March / Moneyball / Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
A very strong category indeed. The Descendants was excellent but any of these films would be worthy winners. Again, no nod for We Need To Talk About Kevin leaves me scratching my itchy, itchy head.
A follow up post with how many of these predictions were correct will follow. Last year it was 25%, a score that would be terrible if we'd had a 5 year old predicting the Oscars outcome.
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